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With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, City forward Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his most impressive beginning to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it nevertheless places him three strikes clear in the early running for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

What makes this zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Naturally, injury could definitively intervene in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the award so early in the season.

Firstly, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the total and standard of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the sluggish beginning his regular challengers for the prize have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) indicates how many goals a English league attacker has traditionally converted from the number and quality of opportunities he's received.

This doesn't represent a figure arbitrarily chosen by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this campaign from normal play, the Norwegian striker is obtaining considerably more quality chances to convert than every other footballer.

Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than any other player in the division, he would nevertheless have converted over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Opportunity Analysis

That is demonstrated by breaking down the total and standard of scoring situations that players have had in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this campaign, twelve additional compared to any other player.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had in fact attempted more open-play attempts at this juncture in the most recent two terms (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in 2024-25).

What is, however unprecedented even for him is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His efforts have had an xG value of 0.27 on average.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the shots he has had at a rate of 27%.

Among footballers attempting at minimum ten attempts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against the Hammers and Seagulls.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the start of last season.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in the current season have been significantly more straightforward to score from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so strongly is, as previously stated, not uncommon for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last campaign he had netted ten times - four additional compared to any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who claimed the top scorer award with 29 goals, seven more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egyptian attacker has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. Upon reviewing at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the additional ten attackers combined so far.

Whether due to physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in one particular striker's situation or simply because their sides have underperformed (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the battle for the scoring title have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the Continental scoring award that is presented to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?

That competition is far more competitive at this early stage because two elite attackers have likewise begun in great form, with 11 and nine goals respectively.

The circumstance Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the three despite not attempting any spot-kicks makes him the favourite.

Yet given that the English and French stars are some of the most excellent converters in European soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.